Burke picks picks over Penner

I'd brag I called it but it was a no-brainer decision. Brian Burke chose the Oilers 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks over resigning Dustin Penner.

Here's my next prediction: This will be the undoing of Kevin Lowe in Edmonton.

Here's how it will go down...

• Penner cracks under the weight of his $4M contract. Increased minutes doesn't result in increased points for the winger, not without Getzlaf and Perry dishing him the puck.
  
• The Oilers struggle through much of 07-08. Their lack of depth - and heart now that Smyth is gone - becomes painfully obvious. The Oilers fans and media will quickly turn on both Perry and Lowe.
  
• Lowe fires coach Craig MacTavish in hopes of saving his own job. Just ask Burke how the Oilers' GM treats his friends.
  
• Edmonton finishes in the bottom of the Northwest division, giving the Ducks some excellent picks in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. Unfortunately, Bettman doesn't exempt John Tavares into the draft.
  
• Lowe gets canned the day after the Oilers end their lackluster season. Neil Smith interviews for the vacant GM spot.
  
• With Lowe having served as scapegoat, Penner explodes for 50 goals during the 08-09 season.
  
• Finally worth his contract, the Oilers trade Penner back to the Ducks for a first round pick and one more ball in the draft lottery. Phoenix wins and takes Tavares.

And if that's how it happens, I will brag.

Lowe keeps the off-season interesting

The Oilers GM is at it again.

Kevin Lowe tendered his second offer-sheet of the summer, this time luring Dustin Penner to Edmonton for $21.5M over 5 years. For anyone counting, that's a raise of $3.8M per year for the Ducks forward after only one full year in the show.

They used to blame big market teams for ratcheting up salaries. In the new NHL, it's a way to put cap pressure on your competition. Or just cure the fact you can't lure an UFA. I'm not sure which is Lowe's master plan.

Lowe hasn't had a lot of luck in the open market. Sure, he snagged Sheldon Souray. But what if the former Montreal defenseman hadn't waited for an offer from the Rangers? I'm sure Souray had a number of potential offers July 1. But two weeks later, buying teams have significantly less cap space after their initial spending spree. The market for big-ticket UFAs dries up.

If Lowe's plan is the former, it could backfire if Brian Burke refuses to match the offer. Penner is a great asset for the Ducks but not irreplaceable. Lowe will be left hoping he gets more out of Penner than he did Joffrey Lupul.

Either way, Lowe has definitely spiced up the NHL's dog days of summer.