Burke picks picks over Penner

I'd brag I called it but it was a no-brainer decision. Brian Burke chose the Oilers 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks over resigning Dustin Penner.

Here's my next prediction: This will be the undoing of Kevin Lowe in Edmonton.

Here's how it will go down...

• Penner cracks under the weight of his $4M contract. Increased minutes doesn't result in increased points for the winger, not without Getzlaf and Perry dishing him the puck.
  
• The Oilers struggle through much of 07-08. Their lack of depth - and heart now that Smyth is gone - becomes painfully obvious. The Oilers fans and media will quickly turn on both Perry and Lowe.
  
• Lowe fires coach Craig MacTavish in hopes of saving his own job. Just ask Burke how the Oilers' GM treats his friends.
  
• Edmonton finishes in the bottom of the Northwest division, giving the Ducks some excellent picks in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. Unfortunately, Bettman doesn't exempt John Tavares into the draft.
  
• Lowe gets canned the day after the Oilers end their lackluster season. Neil Smith interviews for the vacant GM spot.
  
• With Lowe having served as scapegoat, Penner explodes for 50 goals during the 08-09 season.
  
• Finally worth his contract, the Oilers trade Penner back to the Ducks for a first round pick and one more ball in the draft lottery. Phoenix wins and takes Tavares.

And if that's how it happens, I will brag.

Burke calls Lowe "gutless" and more

Ducks GM Brian Burke addressed the press today in response to Kevin Lowe's offer sheet to Dustin Penner. He had a lot of not so nice things to say, calling Lowe "gutless" for not telling Burke directly about the offer and "classless" for stealing the thunder at tonight's BC Hockey Hall of Fame.

One of Burke's less sensational comments is what should really concern fans and the league itself:

"I have no problem with offer sheets, they are part of the CBA," Burke said on a conference call. "I think it's a tool certainly a team is entitled to use. My issue here is this is the second time this year in my opinion Edmonton have offered a grossly inflated salary for a player, and it impacts on all 30 teams."

- Canadian Press

We'll have to wait and see if these sheets start driving up salaries but it's a real possibility.

The Vanek offer was a bit more reasonable. A proven point-a-game guy with a solid +/- can easily command $7M per year. But Vanek should have to string together at minimum back-to-back seasons like that before sniffing that kind of cash. Consistency is what separates a good season from a great career.

The same could be said of Penner: great potential but unproven. The problem here is, his sheet is about $1M above market for guys with similar numbers.

If Burke refuses to match, he'll receive Edmonton's first, second and third round picks. The Ducks could conceivably have a shot at both the Cup and first choice in the 2008 draft.

If I was Burke, I'd take the picks and start lobbying for John Tavares to enter the draft early.

Lowe keeps the off-season interesting

The Oilers GM is at it again.

Kevin Lowe tendered his second offer-sheet of the summer, this time luring Dustin Penner to Edmonton for $21.5M over 5 years. For anyone counting, that's a raise of $3.8M per year for the Ducks forward after only one full year in the show.

They used to blame big market teams for ratcheting up salaries. In the new NHL, it's a way to put cap pressure on your competition. Or just cure the fact you can't lure an UFA. I'm not sure which is Lowe's master plan.

Lowe hasn't had a lot of luck in the open market. Sure, he snagged Sheldon Souray. But what if the former Montreal defenseman hadn't waited for an offer from the Rangers? I'm sure Souray had a number of potential offers July 1. But two weeks later, buying teams have significantly less cap space after their initial spending spree. The market for big-ticket UFAs dries up.

If Lowe's plan is the former, it could backfire if Brian Burke refuses to match the offer. Penner is a great asset for the Ducks but not irreplaceable. Lowe will be left hoping he gets more out of Penner than he did Joffrey Lupul.

Either way, Lowe has definitely spiced up the NHL's dog days of summer.